Political Reality of Iran

by: Murad Ali

Iran is between a rock and a hard place when it comes to their economic and political survival. Iran is under considerable pressure to give up its nuclear energy program by the implementation of U.N. security resolutions. Yet the situations isn’t as easy for the Iranians as they will have to choose between a powerful energy resource that will spark its growing economy or serious economic consequences that may hinder future growth.

As pressure mounts on the Islamic nation to comply with U.N. resolutions internal squabbling has begun that may force political change. According to the 2006 report on the Political Risk report there is an 85% likelihood that Iran’s regime will still remain conservative over the next year and a half and 60% probability that they will stay conservative over the next five years.

Thus people within Iran have begun to show some signs of content with the revolutionary leaders. Young people want to expand the definition of what it means to be Muslim and allow for the further education of woman, more access to Western products and more freedom in society. Sanctions, if they are implemented and upheld, may further encourage internal activists to demand reform.

Not all nations besides the United States, the U.K., and France are in favor of heavy sanctions on the small country. Russia and China expressed discontent against the possible placing of sanctions on Iran (Popeski, 2006). Fear is that the country is being punished for being both Muslim and not bowing to international powers.

On July 31, 2006 the U.N. Security Council passed a security resolution telling Iran they had 30 days to suspend their Nuclear program or risk sanctions. This deadline has now come and the next move is in Iran’s hands. It is highly likely that Iran will not bow down to international pressure as it builds an independent nation.